Oscar Predictions

This being a movie blog, a post of Oscar predictions seems appropriate. That the post comes from the guy who has seen just one nominated film (Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, up for Best Cinematography)?  Less appropriate. But when has knowledge ever been a requirement for blogging?

I'm not going to pick every category. For the ones I don't mention, assume that Avatar wins all the technical awards it's nominated for, the documentary awards go to the most left-leaning entries, and everything else is won by a movie you probably didn't see.

For the rest (these are what Wikipedia terms the "major awards"):

Best Foreign Language Film: I have no idea why this is major while cinematography is not. In any case, I would tend to go with Ajami, which is Israel's submission, except that it's primarily in Arabic. I think that will confuse some people and irritate those who aren't crazy about Israel's Arab population in the first place. So I'm going with The Milk of Sorrow, a Peruvian film that's partially in Quechua. Score one for repressed indigenous peoples!

Best Animated Feature: Up is the only animated movie nominated for Best Picture. It is also nominated in this category. While it would be hilarious if one of the other nominated movies (Coraline, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells) won, I don't see it happening.

Best Adapted Screenplay: I'm thinking Precious. I'm a little surprised that Avatar didn't get nominated here for adapting whatever episode of Captain Planet it's based on.

Best Original Screenplay: I think this is where the run of awards for The Hurt Locker will start. The writer, Mark Boal, also strikes me as the sort of person that tends to win this, based on past awards for young writers who make a splash (thinking of the likes of Diablo Cody, Alan Ball, and, way back when, current nominee Quentin Tarantino).

Best Supporting Actress: We're all agreed that Mo'nique is going to win this, right? 

Best Supporting Actor: I know nothing about him, but what little I've read suggests that Christoph Waltz is the odds-on favorite here. Which is why I'm going with Christopher Plummer for his portrayal of Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station. There needs to be at least one surprise acting winner, and why not do it in a category that often recognizes older actors with a long body of work (Alan Arkin, Morgan Freeman, Jim Broadbent, Michael Caine, James Coburn, etc.).

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock. I almost can't believe I just typed that, but then I remember that Julia Roberts has won an Oscar, so all bets are off.

Best Actor: We're all agreed that Jeff Bridges is going to win this, right?

Best Director: Everyone has this coming down to the formerly married couple, though it would be something if Lee Daniels, the first African-American director nominated for the award, could benefit from a split decision. I don't think that'll happen, especially as Kathryn Bigelow has already won the DGA Award, which is a very strong indicator of who wins the Oscar.

Best Picture: Twice in the last ten years the Best Picture and Best Director awards have split, both both could be considered unusual cases. In 2005, Crash won best picture while Ang Lee won the directing award for Brokeback Mountain, whose story of gay ranchers wasn't likely Best Picture material. In 2002 Chicago won Best Picture but Rob Marshall was passed over as Best Director, I assume because he's a theater person who directed a musical. 

This year poses a similar dilemma, given the technical breakthrough represented by Avatar. Do voters choose to reward the advances made by a movie that's a little light on story and character, or do they reward a more traditional film that's more completely made? It's a hard choice to make, but then I realize the kicker: James Cameron is an ass, and that might just tip the scales enough to let The Hurt Locker squeak by.

So there you have. Place your wagers accordingly (with the full knowledge and understanding that by reading this post you've waived any claims of liability against Adventures in Snack Canyon for any losses incurred, especially as you'd have to be a gold-plated moron to wager actual money based on picks made by a guy who clearly indicated at the start that he's seen none of the films up for major awards.).

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An Animated Revolution

So we finally did get to see Persepolis tonight, and I'd suggest that if you live in or near a city where you can see it that you do so at your earliest convenience. It is the funniest and most poignant movie about growing up during the Iranian revolution and its resulting Islamic dictatorship that you'll ever see. It's also likely one of the last feature-length hand-animated films you'll ever see, and there's a quality to the drawing here that you don't get with the computerized 3D imagery that's all the rage now.

Speaking of which, this film will likely lose to Ratatouille for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars, which is too bad. I mean, I'm sure Ratatouille is great and all, but I don't think vermin that can cook quite measure up to this very unique coming of age story.

Note that the film is in French and subtitled. There is apparently and English-dubbed version, but it's not being distributed. Which is fine, as the voice work here, especially Danielle Darrieux as the grandmother, is excellent. Also notable is that real-life mother-daughter combo Catherine Deneuve and Chiara Mastroianni voice the mother and daughter in the film.

Five previews, all reflecting the indie sensibility of the theater we were at:

Married Life, about a love quadrangle where a husband (Chris Cooper) decides it's easier to kill his wife (Patricia Clarkson) than divorce her so he can be with his lover (Rachel McAdams). Pierce Brosnan also stars. Not sure how I feel about this one.

CJ7, an odd-looking Chinese film about a laborer who, unable to afford the latest toy for his son, goes to the local dump and finds what appears to be a very malliable alien. It looks like a family comedy, and I expect that you could probably find the alien at toy stores across China.

The Band's Visit, about an Egyptian police band that was supposed to play at an Arab cultural center in Israel but takes the wrong bus and winds up in the wrong town. Looks cute, but has subtitles for accented English, which drives me nuts. The accents don't really require them.

Chicago 10, a sort of documentary look at the protest leaders who went on trial in the aftermath of the 1968 Democratic National Convention crisis. It's part archival footage, part animated, which is interesting but I find the animation style off-putting. It's like the rotoscoping in those Charles Schwab ads, which I find creepy.

The Counterfieter, the story of a man who is arrested for counterfieting, winds up breaking rocks while in a concentration camp, but is then pulled off to help the Nazis create fake Allied nations currency. This is up for the foriegn language Oscar, and it looks pretty good, though I do like war movies, even if it's fairly tangential.

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