Oscar Predictions 2024

So last year was a small step forward for me, correctly predicting 7 of the 10 awards I bother to predict. Of course, two of the misses were in major categories (Best Actress and Best Picture). Let's see if I can do better this year!

But first, random nomination thoughts:

* I have only seen two nominated films, and they're actually going up against each other in a category. Both Napoleon and Godzilla Minus One were tabbed for Best Visual Effects, and I have to admit I'm pulling for the monster (though it would also have to beat the latest Guardians of the Galaxy and Mission Impossible movies to take the award).

Napoleon also got a nod for costuming.

* On the music side, John Williams got his 54th (!) nomination, this time for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. One of his fellow nominees is Robbie Robertson, former member of The Band who did the score for Killers of the Flower Moon before he passed away last August. None of which may matter, as early results suggest Ludwig Goransson will win for Oppenheimer.

On the song side, Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas could pick up their second Oscar in three years with their song from Barbie. Their biggest competition may be the other song from Barbie that was nominated, "I'm Just Ken." 

* Speaking of Barbie, two of the most notable non-nominations this year were for the film's star, Margot Robbie, and its director, Greta Gerwig. Both could still win a statue, though, as Robbie could get one as a producer (if the film wins best picture) and Gerwig could get one for the screenplay. The film did give us one of the surprise nominations with America Ferrara getting a Best Supporting Actress nod.

* I'm also trying to figure out if Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie and American Symphony got snubbed in the feature documentary category. Still cleaned up at the Critics' Choice Documentary Awards, winning Best Documentary Feature as part of its five total awards. It was on the shortlist but not nominated. It did win a number of Emmy Awards, so I'm thinking voters opted to honor it there.

There was no such dodge available for American Symphony, about a year in the life of musician Jon Batiste and his wife's battle with leukemia. It had the most Critics' Choice Documentary Awards nominations with six, winning two. He did get a best song nod, though, so we'll likely see him at the ceremony anyway (hopefully with his wife).

Your usual disclaimers:

* My picks will include information on other awards already presented (I think as this point it's just the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards) and nominated (everything else).  I may add information on who won these other awards as they're given out, but the picks are locked in.

* Don't take the locked in status for anything resembling confidence or actual knowledge. As I said before I've seen two nominated films, neither of which are nominated for the major awards. Take all of these with a huge grain of salt. Use them to make your own Oscar pool picks at your peril.

And now the picks!

Best International Feature Film - There are two international films nominated for Best Picture, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. So why is only the latter nominated in this category?

Similar to RRR last year, blame shenanigans by the national nominating committee. They decided to go with The Taste of Things, apparently to punish Anatomy of a Fall director Justine Triet for comments made about how French president Emmanuel Macron suppressed the pension reform protests. So while they did block the film from the category it would most likely win, the film did get five nominations (including Best Picture and Best Director).

All of this is a longish way of my picking The Zone of Interest as it is the one film in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture. 

(Update: The Zone of Interest took this award at the BAFTAs, as well as the award for best British film.)

Best Animated Feature Film - Pixar is on a two year losing streak in this category, which is as long as they've ever gone without winning (it's happened three times before).  Look for the studio to enter uncharted territory, as I don't see Elemental as the film to get them back in the win column.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won the Critics' Choice award, but I think the Oscar is going to go to Hayao Miyazaki and The Boy and the Heron, which won the Golden Globe. I have no real theory to base this on, and both films have racked up a number of awards, so I wouldn't be surprised if Spidey took this one.

(Update: The Boy and the Heron won the animated feature award at the BAFTAs, but Spider-Man:Across the Spider-Verse won Best Feature at the Annie Awards and the PGA Award.)

Best Original Screenplay - I'm going with Anatomy of a Fall here, as most of the big-name films are in the other category. It did win the screenplay Golden Globe, though it wasn't nominated for the Critics' Choice Award (maybe it didn't qualify?). 

(Update: Anatomy of a Fall won the BAFTA over Barbie, among others.)

Best Adapted Screenplay - I don't know if it's really an adapted screenplay (it has at least one original screenplay nod elsewhere), but I'm going with Barbie as both a potential make-up for Greta Gerwig not getting a director nod and because I don't know how much adaptation happened when you make a three to four hour movie. 

(Update: American Fiction won the BAFTA, and I kind of wish I'd picked this instead.)

Acting awards rapid-fire as always

Best Actor - Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers

Best Actress - Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey, Jr. for Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers

Randolph is as close to a mortal lock for her award as you can be, and Giamatti and Downey have been winning consistently for their roles as well. If Gladstone doesn't win it'll likely be Emma Stone (who has won a Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for Poor Things).

(Update: Cillian Murphy and Emma Stone won the BAFTAs for leads, Downey and Randolph for supporting. Three of the four also took SAG Awards, with Lily Gladstone taking the fourth. The lead awards are as up for grabs as the supporting awards are locked down.)

Best Director - I'm going to underthink this and the Best Picture category this year and go with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. 

(Update - Nolan won the DGA Award, which makes him a strong favorite for the Oscar. Winning the BAFTA won't hurt, either.) 

Best Picture - Which means I'm also going with Oppenheimer to win here, and probably dooming it. 

(Update - it did win the Best Film BAFTA, so I may not have jinxed it too badly. It also took the best cast statue at the SAG Awards, which isn't a best picture award and doesn't track particularly well with the Best Picture Oscar, but I thought it worth mentioning. It also won the PGA Award, so we might as well get ready for this to win the big prize.)