Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Oscar Predictions 2020

So it turns out I actually did worse last year than I did in 2018, probably because I didn't really know too many of the award winners (especially the guild awards) when I made my picks. This year is kind of a hybrid, as I do know a fair number of the other award winners, but at least a couple (BAFTAs and WGAs) haven't been held yet.

As with last year, I have seen zero nominated films. The lone film I saw in the theaters was Cats. I expect it will do well in Razzie Award nominations.

The only random observation I have is that Cynthia Erivo, who is nominated for Best Actress in Harriet, is also performing the Best Original Song nominee from the movie, which she co-wrote. I hope she wins here, as I don't see her as having much of a chance for Best Actress based on how awards season has been going.

Oh, one other. Apollo 11 not getting a documentary nod seems ridiculous. I saw this on TV rather than in the theater, but it was still spellbinding.

Your picks!

Best International Feature Film - new name, same award for films from outside of the US that are in a language other than English.  Like last year, there's a nominee that's also a Best Picture nominee, so I'm going to go with it. Kudos to Parasite, South Korea's first nomination in the category. If they win, they'll join Cote D'Ivoire and Bosnia and Herzegovina as the only countries with a perfect record in the category (both are one for one).

Best Animated Feature Film - Toy Story 4 is the only Pixar film nominated so...

Best Adapted Screenplay - once again this is going to be a make-up award for a director who didn't get a Best Director nomination. Only question is, which one? I'm going with Little Women, as it seems like all the reviews I read of it made specific, positive mention of the way she re-ordered the book's chronology.

Best Original Screenplay - there's make-up potential here, too, between Noah Baumbach not getting a Best Director nod for Marriage Story and Rian Johnson not getting anything for Knives Out (this being the film's lone nomination). Baumbach seems like the more likely pick here, given that the film was nominated for Best Picture and has a number of acting nominations as well, but I'm going to buck this and go with Knives Out. 

The acting awards all seem pretty locked up at this point:

Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time In Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Best Actress - Renee Zellweger for Judy

All four have won Golden Globes and SAG Awards, and all four are nominated for BAFTAs. I think it would be a huge surprise if any of them did not win. In past years I've suggested alternatives, but this all seems so pre-ordained that I'm not even going to bother this year.

Best Director - I'm going with Sam Mendes based on the technical achievement. It also helps that he won the DGA Award, which is highly predictive of winning this award.

Best Picture- But I'm not going with 1917 here, as from what I've read the story leaves something to be desired. It's also pretty rare for a film to win this award when it has no acting nominations (the last film to win Best Picture without any acting nominations was Slumdog Millionaire, before that it was Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, and before that The Last Emperor).

So who does win? I don't have a great feel for this, but think it winds up being Joker, as divisive as that's been. Unless the academy voters can't get over the comics connection, in which case maybe Little Women get it.

This is where it would help if I actually saw movies. Anyway, happy Oscars!


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