Saturday, February 21, 2015

Oscar Predictios 2015

Back again for another year, the least essential Oscar predictions made by a guy who hasn't seen any of the nominated films. I won't even bother with the Oscar pool disclaimer, it's so close to the actual ceremony.

My only comment before getting to our usual predictions is that "Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie had better win the best original song award after its snubbing for best animated feature.

Best Foreign Language Film - I usually pick the film that uses the most exotic (to me) language. I usually don't pick correctly, so my apologies to Tangerines, which I am picking because it is partly in Estonian.

Best Animated Feature - So I actually did see a nominated film this year, Big Hero 6. I saw it on a Disney cruise (which is where I'm writing this from, incidentally). I liked it well enough. So it's my pick! (Turns out I've actually seen two nominated films, as the best animated short nominee Feast was shown before Big Hero 6. It'd be nice to see it win, too.)

Best Original Screenplay - Wes Anderson won the WGA award for The Grand Budapest Hotel, so you think this might be the year he finally breaks through, and it would make some sense as it would be a way to recognize him and the film, which have virtually no chance at the major awards. But I'm going to say the award goes to Birdman for some reason.

Best Adapted Screenplay - I might as well go with one WGA winner and pick The Imitation Game, even though I think the film has gotten a little lost behind the other films with multiple nominations. I would not be surprise if American Sniper won this as a way to recognize the film without getting too political with Clint Eastwood thanking an empty chair.

Best Supporting Actor - J.K. Simmons for Whiplash.
Best Supporting Actress - Patricia Arquette for Boyhood
Best Actor - Michael Keaton for Birdman
Best Actress - Julianne Moore (finally) for Still Alice

No real discussion here as these all seems like locks. If you made me pick one upset I'd go with Emma Stone for Birdman, though I have no reason beyond her being young Hollywood and generally well liked.

Best Director - Once again, the DGA being the near-mortal lock on this award means I'll choose Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman. However.

Best Picture - I am not going to go with Birdman. It seems like the expansion to 10 nominees has opened up voting a bit and makes the split more likely (or in the case of Argo, a best picture win without your director being nominated at all). I think Birdman may be too divisive to take the ultimate prize, while Boyhood can cash in on its unique production history to claim the top spot.



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