Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Oscar Predictions 2016

So we're back for another go at this, having gone seven for ten last year (two of the misses, however, were Best Actor and Best Picture, so if we were going to miss we missed big). And my obligatory comment about a category we don't pick: with The Weeknd, Sam Smith and Lady Gaga all nominated for Best Original Song, this may be a better show musically than the Grammys.

Standard disclaimer applies, I've seen none of the films in the categories we're predicting. No wagering.

Best Foreign Language Film - I'm going with Mustang because it's representing France but is in Turkish. Double the countries, double the voting appeal.

Best Animated Film - My boys love Shaun the Sheep Movie, and I've seen ads or previews for Anomalisa and Boy & The World. I know nothing about When Marnie Was There. And none of this matters, as Inside Out has had this think locked up for months.

Best Original Screenplay - the WGA Awards aren't until this weekend, so I don't get to cheat on the screenplay awards. This would be an excellent place to break up the #OscarsSoWhite monotony with a win for Straight Outta Compton. But I don't think it's going to happen, as this is where Spotlight will get it's major recognition for the night.

(Also - Joel and Ethan Coen have writing credits on Bridge of Spies? I had no idea, which shows you how much of an expert I am.)

Best Adapted Screenplay - I have no read on this award, so I'm going with this as a makeup award as well for The Big Short. Though I suppose the makeup could be for Carol not getting a Best Picture nod...

(UPDATE: Spotlight and The Big Short both won WGA Awards, and while they're not as predictive as the DGA Award it doesn't hurt.)

Best Supporting Actress - I'm going to take a flier on Rooney Mara here. Alicia Vikander is probably a smarter choice based on her SAG Award.

Best Supporting Actor - The SAG Awards usually help sort this category out, but not this year with Idris Elba's win for Beast of No Nation. Sylvester Stallone will be the sentimental choice, and after his Golden Globe win he could take it. I was leaning towards Mark Ruffalo, but where most of the recognition for acting in Spotlight was for the ensemble, I'm going to go with Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.

Best Actress - Brie Larson, which is an absolute mortal lock.

Best Actor - What I said about Brie Larson? Times a thousand for Leonardo DiCaprio finally getting the Oscar.

Best Director -here I do get to cheat, as the DGA Awards were handed out last week. Alejandro González Iñárritu won for The Revenant, and he'll win here as well.

Best Picture - So here's where things get interesting. The DGA Award is highly predictive of what film wins this award, so you'd think this is a lock for The Revenant. But then there's the Producers Guild Association Awards, which have been spot on since 2007. And then there's Spotlight, which has won most, if not all, of the ensemble acting awards. As these are listed pretty much in order of the likelihood in which the film might win, I'm playing the odds and going with The RevenantA bold choice!

Enjoy the show everyone!



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