Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Oscar Predictions 2018

Time again for the annual Oscars post (or just annual post). I actually went 9 for 10 last year, which is pretty amazing! I do not expect that to happen again.

Before getting to the ten categories I usually predict, a few thoughts on other categories.

1. Kobe Bryant may end the ceremony with more lifetime Oscars than famed cinematographer Rogers Deakins.

2. Can we please get Roger Deakins an Oscar?

3. The only Oscar nominated film I've seen is The Boss Baby. I am at a loss to understand how The Boss Baby is considered one of the five best animated feature films of 2017. 

Unlike last year, I will not look at Five Thirty Eight's predictions prior to making mine, but will add them at the end to see where we agree (or not).

Best Foreign Language Film - while I'm not looking at Five Thirty Eight, I did read an article in The Boston Globe last week where a couple of their critics made picks, and The Insult from Lebanon was their pick here, which I'll go with as well. No Five Thirty Eight prediction here, so I'm hoping the locals aren't steering me wrong.

Best Animated Feature Film - Pixar film nominated, Pixar film wins: Coco. Five Thirty Eight agrees

Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name is the only nominee here who is also up for Best Picture, and as I tend to think of the screenplay categories as the Miss Congeniality awards for Best Picture nominees that won't win that category, I'm going with Call Me By Your Name mostly by default.

Best Original Screenplay - Same theory but with more choices, I think I'm going with Get Out here rather than Lady Bird or whichever of The Shape of Water or Three Billboards is less likely to win Best Picture. 

Five Thirty Eight doesn't model either screenplay award, but both of my choices won the Writers Guild Award, so I feel like I'm on pretty solid ground.

As with most years, I tend to think that the acting awards are all pretty much decided.

Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney for I, Tonya.
Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actress - Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actor - Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour

If forced to change any one of these, it would likely be subbing out either Willem Dafoe or Woody Harrelson for Rockwell. Five Thirty Eight agrees with me on all of these, and even sees the supporting actor award as the most competitive, tabbing Dafoe as a potential spoiler.

Best Director - You win the DGA, you win Best Director. Come get your award, Guillermo del Toro. Five Thirty Eight also picks del Toro, but gives Christopher Nolan a mention based on a similarity to the year that Ang Lee won for Life of Pi, beating Ben Affleck (who would win for producing Best Picture winner Argo). 

Best Picture - The Academy has been on a bit of a run with splitting the director and picture awards, doing so three times in the last four years. I don't know if this is due to the larger number of Best Picture nominees giving voters more options that leads to a split, or if there's less of a mindset that the best director made the best film. There's certainly room for another split this year, especially if voters aren't sure what to make of a film whose romantic plot involves a merman. But I'm going to go with unity, buck the trend, and go with The Shape of Water anyway.

Five Thirty Eight concurs, but notes that Three Billboards has an outside shot, based on the ranked preference voting system used for the award and the influx of new voters over the past five years. They see this as making their model, which uses guild and critic awards pretty heavily, less useful for now. 

That's it. See you Sunday!



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