Thursday, March 10, 2022

Oscar Predictions 2022

Back for another year of Oscar predictions, although a second straight year of going 6 for 10 suggests I'd be better off doing just about anything else than making Oscar predictions.

One positive step for me this year is that I've seen a nominated film that's not animated! While I don't think it will win any awards, it was nice to see CODA pick up three nods. As usual, though, most of the nominated films I've seen are animated (Encanto and Luca; one of the kids did watch Raya and the Last Dragon but I didn't really pay attention). 

Some observations before the picks:

* The Best Original Song category is fascinating. Nominees include Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Van Morrison, and Diane Warren (who is 0 for 12 in the category). I tend to think Miranda will win (even if people are shirty that "We Don't Talk About Bruno" isn't nominated), but I don't think I've heard any of the other songs, so take my judgement at face value.

* I obviously watched the wrong Latinx live-action musical this year, as I did see In the Heights (which landed zero Oscar nods) but not West Side Story (which picked up seven). West Side Story is coming to Apple TV+ soon, so hopefully I'll correct this oversight before the Oscars.

* It's weird that Being the Ricardos picked up three acting nominations and nothing else. I feel like if you have that many notable performances then the film probably has at least one award-worthy aspect outside of acting. 

Like last year, I'm making my picks before the more predictive guild awards, and will update as those become available. On with the picks!

International Feature Film - the one rule I've come up with for picking the winner here is to go with a movie if it's also nominated for Best Picture. It's not exactly rocket science, I know, but it works, so congrats to Japan for their win with Drive My Car, which will be their first win since the 1950s.

Animated Feature Film - no Pixar film this year, but three Disney films that could theoretically steal votes from each other to open things up for one of the other two. Realistically, though, I'd be stunned if this went to any other film but Encanto

Original Screenplay - Each of the nominees here seem to have an issue. Belfast has been criticized as being rose-colored with regards to the reality of growing up in Northern Ireland. Don't Look Up is too heavy-handed. King Richard is about a domineering sports dad. Licorice Pizza raised concerns over the age difference between protagonists. And The Worst Person in the World is too Norwegian. 

So who to go with? I usually look at this award as a consolation prize for the best film of the bunch that won't win Best Picture, but with this group it could be any of them. So instead I'm going with the lifetime achievement angle and Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

(Belfast won the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards, so I a may be on to something here. Don't Look Up won the Writers Guild Award, for which Belfast wasn't nominated.)

Adapted Screenplay - I am really pulling for CODA here, both as it's the one non-animated nominated film I've seen, and because it was filmed in and around where I live. But it's probably too much to expect the Academy to bend to my will. Instead, I will go with what would seem to be a bit of a make-up call for the writer not getting nominations elsewhere, and pick Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter. There's at least some argument that she and the film got snubbed for Best Director and Best Picture, and if voters buy into that they could make a correction here. 

(Sian Heder won the BAFTA and the WGA Award, Jane Campion the Critics Choice Award, so my theory is probably way off.)

Acting awards in rapid fire:

Best Actor goes to Will Smith for King Richard
Best Actress goes to Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actor goes to Ciaran Hinds for Belfast
Best Supporting Actress goes to Ariana DuBose for West Side Story

(Three of these awards seem pretty set - Smith, DuBose, and CODA's Troy Kotsur have won the SAG Award, BAFTA, and Critic's Choice Award, so at this point it seems like it would be an upset for any of them to not win the Oscar. Big miss on my part to not go with Kotsur. Best Actress seems likely to go to Jessica Chastain - she won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards, but wasn't nominated for the BAFTA.)

Best Director - I'm tempted to move away from The Power of the Dog, thinking it might be this year's Mank. But I'm not going to, as I fear that I'm over-reacting. I'm also going to resist the temptation of splitting the director and best picture awards, and go with Jane Campion. Which means...

Best Picture - I'm going to go with Power of the Dog.  CODA won the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast, but that's not particularly predictive. The winner of that award wins the Best Picture Oscar about half the time (10 times in the last 21 years). I fell like if I'm going to be wrong here it's going to be with a film like West Side Story, which as a big pedigree spectacle may get a lot of votes.

(Playing it safe seems like it might work out - Power of the Dog won both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards, and Campion won the Best Director award at both as well. But! CODA won the Producers Guild of America Award for best picture, which is generally highly predictive for winning the best picture Oscar but has deviated more recently than over the entire history of the award. Campion did win the best director award from the Directors Guild of America, so maybe we're on our way to a split?)



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