Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Oscar Predictions 2014

Hey, the Oscars are on Sunday! So here's your annual predictions post, which is rapidly becoming the site's annual post.

Usual disclaimers: I've seen none of these movies, don't blame us if you make your Oscar pool picks based on this and tank. On to the predictions!

Best Foreign Language Film - Not as easy as last year when one of the nominees was also a Best Picture nominee, so it's back to making up some bullshit reason why a film will win. I'm going with Belgium's The Broken Circle Breakdown, on the idea that an Oscar win may help get those crazy Flemish and Walloons to live together in harmony.

Best Animated Feature - there may be some sentiment for The Wind Rises if it is indeed Hayao Miyazaki's last film, but this is probably going to Frozen.

Best Original Screenplay - winning the WGA Award is enough of a reason for me to go with Her, even if it was based on an episode of The Big Bang Theory.

Best Adapted Screenplay - the WGA Award here went to Captain Phillips, but I'm going to go with 12 Years a Slave here for no particularly good reason.

Best Supporting Actor - is going to Jared Leto, which is apparently the biggest lock of all the acting awards.

Best Supporting Actress - will probably go to Jennifer Lawrence, though I'm totally rooting for June Squibb.

Best Actor - you should probably get used to hearing "Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey" from here on out. He won the Golden Globe, SAG Award and Satellite Award for his role in Dallas Buyers Club, all of which portends well for him. On the other hand, the idea of hearing "Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey" may drive voters to Chiwetel Ejiofor.

Best Actress - things get a little interesting here as Cate Blanchett has won pretty much everything in sight for her work in Blue Jasmine, the latest film by (re)accused child molester Woody Allen. And while you'd like to think that voters can separate Blanchett's work from everything else, it's certainly not going to help. I still think Cate Blanchett will win, but am leaving the door open a little for someone else (either Amy Adams, to avoid becoming her generation's Julianne Moore, or Judi Dench because she's Judi Dench).

Best Director - The DGA Award, which is a very strong predictor for this award and for Best Picture, went this year to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, and I don't see why he wouldn't win here as well. Cuarón's also won the lion's share of other awards, and people seem to like him more than the last director of a technically visionary film.

Best Picture - this is where things get interesting Most of the talk here has been about 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle, and while Gravity will likely dominate the technical awards it hasn't done so well in winning other Best Picture awards. The Oscars abhor a split, but I'm thinking that 12 Years a Slave forces one this year.

So there you have it. Let's see how wrong I am on Sunday!


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