Oscar Predictions 2024

So last year was a small step forward for me, correctly predicting 7 of the 10 awards I bother to predict. Of course, two of the misses were in major categories (Best Actress and Best Picture). Let's see if I can do better this year!

But first, random nomination thoughts:

* I have only seen two nominated films, and they're actually going up against each other in a category. Both Napoleon and Godzilla Minus One were tabbed for Best Visual Effects, and I have to admit I'm pulling for the monster (though it would also have to beat the latest Guardians of the Galaxy and Mission Impossible movies to take the award).

Napoleon also got a nod for costuming.

* On the music side, John Williams got his 54th (!) nomination, this time for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. One of his fellow nominees is Robbie Robertson, former member of The Band who did the score for Killers of the Flower Moon before he passed away last August. None of which may matter, as early results suggest Ludwig Goransson will win for Oppenheimer.

On the song side, Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas could pick up their second Oscar in three years with their song from Barbie. Their biggest competition may be the other song from Barbie that was nominated, "I'm Just Ken." 

* Speaking of Barbie, two of the most notable non-nominations this year were for the film's star, Margot Robbie, and its director, Greta Gerwig. Both could still win a statue, though, as Robbie could get one as a producer (if the film wins best picture) and Gerwig could get one for the screenplay. The film did give us one of the surprise nominations with America Ferrara getting a Best Supporting Actress nod.

* I'm also trying to figure out if Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie and American Symphony got snubbed in the feature documentary category. Still cleaned up at the Critics' Choice Documentary Awards, winning Best Documentary Feature as part of its five total awards. It was on the shortlist but not nominated. It did win a number of Emmy Awards, so I'm thinking voters opted to honor it there.

There was no such dodge available for American Symphony, about a year in the life of musician Jon Batiste and his wife's battle with leukemia. It had the most Critics' Choice Documentary Awards nominations with six, winning two. He did get a best song nod, though, so we'll likely see him at the ceremony anyway (hopefully with his wife).

Your usual disclaimers:

* My picks will include information on other awards already presented (I think as this point it's just the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards) and nominated (everything else).  I may add information on who won these other awards as they're given out, but the picks are locked in.

* Don't take the locked in status for anything resembling confidence or actual knowledge. As I said before I've seen two nominated films, neither of which are nominated for the major awards. Take all of these with a huge grain of salt. Use them to make your own Oscar pool picks at your peril.

And now the picks!

Best International Feature Film - There are two international films nominated for Best Picture, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. So why is only the latter nominated in this category?

Similar to RRR last year, blame shenanigans by the national nominating committee. They decided to go with The Taste of Things, apparently to punish Anatomy of a Fall director Justine Triet for comments made about how French president Emmanuel Macron suppressed the pension reform protests. So while they did block the film from the category it would most likely win, the film did get five nominations (including Best Picture and Best Director).

All of this is a longish way of my picking The Zone of Interest as it is the one film in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture. 

(Update: The Zone of Interest took this award at the BAFTAs, as well as the award for best British film.)

Best Animated Feature Film - Pixar is on a two year losing streak in this category, which is as long as they've ever gone without winning (it's happened three times before).  Look for the studio to enter uncharted territory, as I don't see Elemental as the film to get them back in the win column.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won the Critics' Choice award, but I think the Oscar is going to go to Hayao Miyazaki and The Boy and the Heron, which won the Golden Globe. I have no real theory to base this on, and both films have racked up a number of awards, so I wouldn't be surprised if Spidey took this one.

(Update: The Boy and the Heron won the animated feature award at the BAFTAs, but Spider-Man:Across the Spider-Verse won Best Feature at the Annie Awards and the PGA Award.)

Best Original Screenplay - I'm going with Anatomy of a Fall here, as most of the big-name films are in the other category. It did win the screenplay Golden Globe, though it wasn't nominated for the Critics' Choice Award (maybe it didn't qualify?). 

(Update: Anatomy of a Fall won the BAFTA over Barbie, among others.)

Best Adapted Screenplay - I don't know if it's really an adapted screenplay (it has at least one original screenplay nod elsewhere), but I'm going with Barbie as both a potential make-up for Greta Gerwig not getting a director nod and because I don't know how much adaptation happened when you make a three to four hour movie. 

(Update: American Fiction won the BAFTA, and I kind of wish I'd picked this instead.)

Acting awards rapid-fire as always

Best Actor - Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers

Best Actress - Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey, Jr. for Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers

Randolph is as close to a mortal lock for her award as you can be, and Giamatti and Downey have been winning consistently for their roles as well. If Gladstone doesn't win it'll likely be Emma Stone (who has won a Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for Poor Things).

(Update: Cillian Murphy and Emma Stone won the BAFTAs for leads, Downey and Randolph for supporting. Three of the four also took SAG Awards, with Lily Gladstone taking the fourth. The lead awards are as up for grabs as the supporting awards are locked down.)

Best Director - I'm going to underthink this and the Best Picture category this year and go with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. 

(Update - Nolan won the DGA Award, which makes him a strong favorite for the Oscar. Winning the BAFTA won't hurt, either.) 

Best Picture - Which means I'm also going with Oppenheimer to win here, and probably dooming it. 

(Update - it did win the Best Film BAFTA, so I may not have jinxed it too badly. It also took the best cast statue at the SAG Awards, which isn't a best picture award and doesn't track particularly well with the Best Picture Oscar, but I thought it worth mentioning. It also won the PGA Award, so we might as well get ready for this to win the big prize.)

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+1 Godzilla Minus One

 I did not grow up a fan of Godzilla. I would occasionally watch parts of the regionally syndicated Creature Double Feature, which would run two movies on Saturday afternoons, usually a mix of traditional horror/monster movies and Toho's kaiju films. I was more exposed to kaiju thanks to Mystery Science Theater 3000 (from which we learned that Gamera is full of turtle meat and that one of the greatest threats to Japan's postwar stability was traffic accidents). I also saw the 1998 Godzilla film starring Matthew Broderick, which was garbage.

So, of course, I have a son who loves Godzilla.

This is why, on our family vacation a couple of summers ago, we wound up at the Pickwick Theater in Park Ridge, Illinois, watching both the original Godzilla and Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster. I liked the original more than I expected, and found the second movie just goofy enough to make up for what it otherwise lacked in plot and acting. My son, of course, was in his element, enjoying both films and even engaging in discussions with other attendees (which normally would not be in his comfort zone).

I had my return date with the monster over the holidays, when the two of us took in Godzilla Minus One. It's not exactly a reboot (as far as I can tell), but does give a fresh spin on the origin story. As with the original, Godzilla is angered/mutated by atomic weapon testing in the Pacific, and decides to take it out on Tokyo.  When the government can't stop the monster, a plucky team made up mostly of war veterans and scientists come up with their own plan to do so.

The central character in all of this is a failed kamikaze pilot, who got a sneak preview of Godzilla's power when it attacked the remote airbase he flew to rather than ram an American ship. His shame, and the sadness brought on by the deaths of his parents, makes it difficult to fit in when he returns to Tokyo, but he finds purpose again when he takes in a young woman who is living on the streets with a baby (all three orphans). He then gets a job taking out naval mines with a small crew who becomes a kind of surrogate family.

I found those plot lines to be surprisingly endearing. Who knew there'd be successful romantic subplot in a monster movie? 

I also liked the nod to past movies, like the use of music from the original film. I also got a strong Jaws vibe from the scenes involving the mine clearing boat.

My only complaint about the film is that it needs 10 to 15 percent more Godzilla. Not sure where, exactly, but I would have liked just a little more.

Anyway, if you're even somewhat into Godzilla or monster movies, it's very much worth checking this out.  The screening I went to was in Japanese with English subtitles, don't know if there's a dubbed version out there or not. Seems like that would be more in tune with how most of us first experienced kaiju movies.

We had six previews before the movie. Two I'd already seen: Argylle (which my son said should be the next movie we see in the theater) and The Beekeeper. The four new previews:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - I'm even less familiar with these movies than Godzilla movies, but it looks like the apes are trying to find human technology, I assume for nefarious purposes. There's also what looks like a feral human involved.

Imaginary - where a girl's imaginary friend turns out to be real- and murderous. Thankfully, my son does not seem interested in seeing this.

Perfect Days- a Wim Wenders film set in Japan, inspired by a project where world-famous architects designed public toilets. The main character (surprise) cleans toilets for a living, and maintains a simple lifestyle that's upended when his niece arrives unexpectedly. It's a very different film tonally from the others that were previewed, but it's the one I'd be most interested in seeing.

I.S.S. - the Russians and Americans staffing the International Space Station square off for control when war breaks out on Earth. Maybe a little on the nose given current conditions. 

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