Oscar Predictions 2023
I'm now on a three year streak of correctly predicting six of the 10 Oscar categories that I guess at here. It doesn't seem to matter how many nominated movies I've seen, which is a good thing as I'm back to having seen almost none of them (as of this writing I've seen one and a half - Turning Red and half of Elvis, counting all the bits a saw between nodding off).
Random thoughts about other nominations:
* I have nothing against Diane Warren, but do find some level of humor in her Susan Lucci-style streak of not winning for Best Original Song.
* The song category is also the only place where RRR was nominated, which was a surprise given its status as an international hit. India didn't submit it for Best International Film (for reasons mostly dealing with what the Indian selection committee thinks Oscar voters want to see), and it didn't crack any of the other categories.
* Speaking of international film, Ireland (or Irish people) snagged 14 nominations, including 9 for The Banshees of Inisherin. This total includes five acting nominations and a short film, An Irish Goodbye (which is from Northern Ireland, but I'm including here as NI is on the island of Ireland). I will try not to be too much of a homer for my ancestral homeland in the picks.
* As with last year, I'll update this with notes based on awards still to come (the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards have already happened, and I'll mention those as I go). And as with every year, use of these picks to inform your own picks is highly contraindicated. You did see that I've only seen one and a half nominated films, right?
Anyway, on to another year of prognosticating mediocrity!
Best International Feature Film - I really, really want to go with The Quiet Girl, Ireland's first-ever nominee in ths category. But as recent history shows, if you have a film in this category that is also nominted for Best Picture, you pick it. So my pick is All Quiet on the Western Front, It lost to RRR for both of the awards I've already mentioned, but as previously noted that won't be an issue here.
(All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA in this category)
Best Animated Feature Film - based on Pixar's history, you would expect Turning Red to be the obvious choice here. But looking at the awards already handed out, I am going to go with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio.
(Pinocchio won the BAFTA)
Best Original Screenplay - I don't have a great read on this based on the awards previously handed out - The Banshees of Inisheern won the Golden Globe and Everything Everywhere All at Once won the Critics' Choice Award. While I like the idea of this award rewarding an original concept that may not get recognized in the big awards, I'm going with the more traditional The Banshees of Inisheern.
Best Adapted Screenplay - While I think this could go to All Quiet on the Western Front, I'm going to go with Women Talking, which won the Critics' Choice Award. From what I've heard about this film it sounds like it's writing-forward, if that makes any sense.
(Banshees and All Quiet won the BAFTAs, where Women Talking was not nominated. Everything Everywhere and Women Talking took the WGA Awards, which are not quite as predictive as the DGA Award, so there's still a chance I can get both of these... or miss both.)
Acting awards, rapid-fire as usual:
Best Suppoting Actor - Ke Huy Quan for Evertyhing Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Actor - Brendan Fraser for The Whale
Best Actress - Cate Blanchett for Tár
I feel like Best Actress is the most likely one to go to someone else, most likely Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
(Speaking of Michelle Yeoh, she led an Everything Everywhere All at Once near sweep at the SAG Awrds, as she, Ke Huy Quan, and surprise winner Jamie Lee Curis took three quarters of the individual film awards. Brendan Fraser took the lead actor award for The Whale. Compare these results with the BAFTAs, where Blanchett was my only pick to win. Austin Butler won best actor for Elvis while both supprorting awards went to The Banshees of Inisheern.)
Best Director - I'm going with Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schienert for Everything Everywhere All at Once, based on the same logic that saw Alfonso Cuaron win for Gravity. It may not be the best film overall in the groip (though it very well could be), but has a level of technical and visual achievement that should be awarded.
(The Daniels won the DGA Award, but Edward Berger - who is not Oscar noominated - won the BAFTA for All Quiet)
Best Picture - But like the year Gravity won, we'll have a split at the top. I'm going with The Banshees of Inisheern, which I don't have winning anything else among these picks, but can see getting the top prize for being the second best film in all of the other nominated categories.
(All Quiet won the BAFTA, while Everything Everywhere All at Once took the SAG Award for best ensemble, which is the closest thing they have to a best picture award. All Quiet was not nominated for the SAG Award)
That's it. Updates to come as more awards get handed out.
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