Oscar Predictions 2024

So last year was a small step forward for me, correctly predicting 7 of the 10 awards I bother to predict. Of course, two of the misses were in major categories (Best Actress and Best Picture). Let's see if I can do better this year!

But first, random nomination thoughts:

* I have only seen two nominated films, and they're actually going up against each other in a category. Both Napoleon and Godzilla Minus One were tabbed for Best Visual Effects, and I have to admit I'm pulling for the monster (though it would also have to beat the latest Guardians of the Galaxy and Mission Impossible movies to take the award).

Napoleon also got a nod for costuming.

* On the music side, John Williams got his 54th (!) nomination, this time for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. One of his fellow nominees is Robbie Robertson, former member of The Band who did the score for Killers of the Flower Moon before he passed away last August. None of which may matter, as early results suggest Ludwig Goransson will win for Oppenheimer.

On the song side, Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas could pick up their second Oscar in three years with their song from Barbie. Their biggest competition may be the other song from Barbie that was nominated, "I'm Just Ken." 

* Speaking of Barbie, two of the most notable non-nominations this year were for the film's star, Margot Robbie, and its director, Greta Gerwig. Both could still win a statue, though, as Robbie could get one as a producer (if the film wins best picture) and Gerwig could get one for the screenplay. The film did give us one of the surprise nominations with America Ferrara getting a Best Supporting Actress nod.

* I'm also trying to figure out if Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie and American Symphony got snubbed in the feature documentary category. Still cleaned up at the Critics' Choice Documentary Awards, winning Best Documentary Feature as part of its five total awards. It was on the shortlist but not nominated. It did win a number of Emmy Awards, so I'm thinking voters opted to honor it there.

There was no such dodge available for American Symphony, about a year in the life of musician Jon Batiste and his wife's battle with leukemia. It had the most Critics' Choice Documentary Awards nominations with six, winning two. He did get a best song nod, though, so we'll likely see him at the ceremony anyway (hopefully with his wife).

Your usual disclaimers:

* My picks will include information on other awards already presented (I think as this point it's just the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards) and nominated (everything else).  I may add information on who won these other awards as they're given out, but the picks are locked in.

* Don't take the locked in status for anything resembling confidence or actual knowledge. As I said before I've seen two nominated films, neither of which are nominated for the major awards. Take all of these with a huge grain of salt. Use them to make your own Oscar pool picks at your peril.

And now the picks!

Best International Feature Film - There are two international films nominated for Best Picture, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. So why is only the latter nominated in this category?

Similar to RRR last year, blame shenanigans by the national nominating committee. They decided to go with The Taste of Things, apparently to punish Anatomy of a Fall director Justine Triet for comments made about how French president Emmanuel Macron suppressed the pension reform protests. So while they did block the film from the category it would most likely win, the film did get five nominations (including Best Picture and Best Director).

All of this is a longish way of my picking The Zone of Interest as it is the one film in this category that is also nominated for Best Picture. 

(Update: The Zone of Interest took this award at the BAFTAs, as well as the award for best British film.)

Best Animated Feature Film - Pixar is on a two year losing streak in this category, which is as long as they've ever gone without winning (it's happened three times before).  Look for the studio to enter uncharted territory, as I don't see Elemental as the film to get them back in the win column.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse won the Critics' Choice award, but I think the Oscar is going to go to Hayao Miyazaki and The Boy and the Heron, which won the Golden Globe. I have no real theory to base this on, and both films have racked up a number of awards, so I wouldn't be surprised if Spidey took this one.

(Update: The Boy and the Heron won the animated feature award at the BAFTAs, but Spider-Man:Across the Spider-Verse won Best Feature at the Annie Awards and the PGA Award.)

Best Original Screenplay - I'm going with Anatomy of a Fall here, as most of the big-name films are in the other category. It did win the screenplay Golden Globe, though it wasn't nominated for the Critics' Choice Award (maybe it didn't qualify?). 

(Update: Anatomy of a Fall won the BAFTA over Barbie, among others.)

Best Adapted Screenplay - I don't know if it's really an adapted screenplay (it has at least one original screenplay nod elsewhere), but I'm going with Barbie as both a potential make-up for Greta Gerwig not getting a director nod and because I don't know how much adaptation happened when you make a three to four hour movie. 

(Update: American Fiction won the BAFTA, and I kind of wish I'd picked this instead.)

Acting awards rapid-fire as always

Best Actor - Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers

Best Actress - Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey, Jr. for Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress - Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers

Randolph is as close to a mortal lock for her award as you can be, and Giamatti and Downey have been winning consistently for their roles as well. If Gladstone doesn't win it'll likely be Emma Stone (who has won a Golden Globe and the Critics' Choice Award for Poor Things).

(Update: Cillian Murphy and Emma Stone won the BAFTAs for leads, Downey and Randolph for supporting. Three of the four also took SAG Awards, with Lily Gladstone taking the fourth. The lead awards are as up for grabs as the supporting awards are locked down.)

Best Director - I'm going to underthink this and the Best Picture category this year and go with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. 

(Update - Nolan won the DGA Award, which makes him a strong favorite for the Oscar. Winning the BAFTA won't hurt, either.) 

Best Picture - Which means I'm also going with Oppenheimer to win here, and probably dooming it. 

(Update - it did win the Best Film BAFTA, so I may not have jinxed it too badly. It also took the best cast statue at the SAG Awards, which isn't a best picture award and doesn't track particularly well with the Best Picture Oscar, but I thought it worth mentioning. It also won the PGA Award, so we might as well get ready for this to win the big prize.)

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+1 Godzilla Minus One

 I did not grow up a fan of Godzilla. I would occasionally watch parts of the regionally syndicated Creature Double Feature, which would run two movies on Saturday afternoons, usually a mix of traditional horror/monster movies and Toho's kaiju films. I was more exposed to kaiju thanks to Mystery Science Theater 3000 (from which we learned that Gamera is full of turtle meat and that one of the greatest threats to Japan's postwar stability was traffic accidents). I also saw the 1998 Godzilla film starring Matthew Broderick, which was garbage.

So, of course, I have a son who loves Godzilla.

This is why, on our family vacation a couple of summers ago, we wound up at the Pickwick Theater in Park Ridge, Illinois, watching both the original Godzilla and Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster. I liked the original more than I expected, and found the second movie just goofy enough to make up for what it otherwise lacked in plot and acting. My son, of course, was in his element, enjoying both films and even engaging in discussions with other attendees (which normally would not be in his comfort zone).

I had my return date with the monster over the holidays, when the two of us took in Godzilla Minus One. It's not exactly a reboot (as far as I can tell), but does give a fresh spin on the origin story. As with the original, Godzilla is angered/mutated by atomic weapon testing in the Pacific, and decides to take it out on Tokyo.  When the government can't stop the monster, a plucky team made up mostly of war veterans and scientists come up with their own plan to do so.

The central character in all of this is a failed kamikaze pilot, who got a sneak preview of Godzilla's power when it attacked the remote airbase he flew to rather than ram an American ship. His shame, and the sadness brought on by the deaths of his parents, makes it difficult to fit in when he returns to Tokyo, but he finds purpose again when he takes in a young woman who is living on the streets with a baby (all three orphans). He then gets a job taking out naval mines with a small crew who becomes a kind of surrogate family.

I found those plot lines to be surprisingly endearing. Who knew there'd be successful romantic subplot in a monster movie? 

I also liked the nod to past movies, like the use of music from the original film. I also got a strong Jaws vibe from the scenes involving the mine clearing boat.

My only complaint about the film is that it needs 10 to 15 percent more Godzilla. Not sure where, exactly, but I would have liked just a little more.

Anyway, if you're even somewhat into Godzilla or monster movies, it's very much worth checking this out.  The screening I went to was in Japanese with English subtitles, don't know if there's a dubbed version out there or not. Seems like that would be more in tune with how most of us first experienced kaiju movies.

We had six previews before the movie. Two I'd already seen: Argylle (which my son said should be the next movie we see in the theater) and The Beekeeper. The four new previews:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - I'm even less familiar with these movies than Godzilla movies, but it looks like the apes are trying to find human technology, I assume for nefarious purposes. There's also what looks like a feral human involved.

Imaginary - where a girl's imaginary friend turns out to be real- and murderous. Thankfully, my son does not seem interested in seeing this.

Perfect Days- a Wim Wenders film set in Japan, inspired by a project where world-famous architects designed public toilets. The main character (surprise) cleans toilets for a living, and maintains a simple lifestyle that's upended when his niece arrives unexpectedly. It's a very different film tonally from the others that were previewed, but it's the one I'd be most interested in seeing.

I.S.S. - the Russians and Americans staffing the International Space Station square off for control when war breaks out on Earth. Maybe a little on the nose given current conditions. 

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Able Was I, Ere I Saw Napoleon

 I didn't plan for my first post-Covid movie in the theater to be Napoleon, but it turns out (after discussion with family) that it was. On the plus side, we saw it in IMAX so the battle scenes made that much more of an impression. On the negative side, I wish I'd picked a better film.

(Aside: it turns out my wife and her mom saw at least one of the Downton Abbey movies in the theater, while the wife and kids saw Encanto when I was at work. Apparently my family likes to go to the movies when I am otherwise occupied.)

This isn't as bad a film as some have made out (the Boston Globe review gave it one and a half stars, which seems too low), but it didn't tell me much that I didn't already know about Napoleon, at least as far as his military exploits go.  I knew less about the relationship between Napoleon and Josephine, other than that it was tempestuous and ended in divorce. I don't know that I know more about their relationship now, though it was apparently kinkier than I expected. There's a four-plus hour director's cut coming to Apple TV+ that will apparently focus  more on their relationship.

I do think having some knowledge of Napoleon's military career will help viewers, as the battle scenes aren't given much more context than Napoleon wants to bring peace to Europe through superior firepower. Most historical figures are noted through quick titles, but some aren't. And as many have opined, there are historical accuracies in the film that you may or may not find annoying. 

Joaquin Phoenix was fine as Napoleon, mumbly but not to the Marlon Brando depths that the Globe review suggested, but he didn't stand out. There are a dozen actors (or more) who could have given a similar performance. Vanessa Kirby was much better as Josephine, potentially Oscar-worthy (based on my not having seen any other non-animated new movies in 2023). I do expect that the movie will get nominated for Oscars, and likely win, in technical categories. As befits a movie where shit gets blown up in a loud and repeated fashion.

So while Napoleon wasn't any great shakes, it was better than the last film I saw in the theater.

And, of course, there were plenty of trailers for movies I probably won't see at all, never mind in the theater:

Ferrari, the biopic of the Italian sports car magnate, with Adam Driver in the title role. Of all of the movies previewed this is the one I'd likely see in the theater, as I am interested in auto racing and would want to see the racing scenes on a big screen.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, where Atlantis is under some sort of threat that Aquaman has to thwart with the help of his brother. I just could not care less. I really have no interest in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Which means I also have no interest in the Spiderman universe, in which Madame Web takes place. Dakota Johnson plays a paramedic who is also clairvoyant. If nothing else, I got to hear the line that launched a thousand memes. 

Bob Marley: One Love, the Bob Marley biopic, whose trailer I mostly missed while fetching a drink for my wife.

The Beekeeper, which has Jason Statham as the same guy as he plays in all his movies, but who also keeps bees. He's bent on taking revenge against a phishing outfit responsible for the suicide of Statham's neighbor, which I guess I can get behind (the revenge, not the suicide).

Argylle, which sees a writer of spy fiction (Bryce Dallas Howard) get tangled up in real life espionage after her book plots steer too close to actual clandestine events. This comes to us from the same people as the Kingsman movies, and looks to hew pretty close to those films' aesthetic.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, where the original cast pairs up with some new recruits to fight off a supernatural threat. This is a sequel to Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and like that movie unrelated to the female-centered 2016 reboot.

No preview for Godzilla Minus One, which will likely be the next movie I see in the theater thanks to my kaiju-loving older son.

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Oscar Predictions 2023

I'm now on a three year streak of correctly predicting six of the 10 Oscar categories that I guess at here. It doesn't seem to matter how many nominated movies I've seen, which is a good thing as I'm back to having seen almost none of them (as of this writing I've seen one and a half - Turning Red and half of Elvis, counting all the bits a saw between nodding off).

Random thoughts about other nominations:

* I have nothing against Diane Warren, but do find some level of humor in her Susan Lucci-style streak of not winning for Best Original Song. 

* The song category is also the only place where RRR was nominated, which was a surprise given its status as an international hit. India didn't submit it for Best International Film (for reasons mostly dealing with what the Indian selection committee thinks Oscar voters want to see), and it didn't crack any of the other categories.

* Speaking of international film, Ireland (or Irish people) snagged 14 nominations, including 9 for The Banshees of Inisherin. This total includes five acting nominations and a short film, An Irish Goodbye (which is from Northern Ireland, but I'm including here as NI is on the island of Ireland). I will try not to be too much of a homer for my ancestral homeland in the picks.

* As with last year, I'll update this with notes based on awards still to come (the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice Awards have already happened, and I'll mention those as I go). And as with every year, use of these picks to inform your own picks is highly contraindicated. You did see that I've only seen one and a half nominated films, right?

Anyway, on to another year of prognosticating mediocrity!

Best International Feature Film - I really, really want to go with The Quiet Girl, Ireland's first-ever nominee in ths category. But as recent history shows, if you have a film in this category that is also nominted for Best Picture, you pick it. So my pick is All Quiet on the Western Front, It lost to RRR for both of the awards I've already mentioned, but as previously noted that won't be an issue here.

(All Quiet on the Western Front won the BAFTA in this category)

Best Animated Feature Film - based on Pixar's history, you would expect Turning Red to be the obvious choice here. But looking at the awards already handed out, I am going to go with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio.

(Pinocchio won the BAFTA)

Best Original Screenplay - I don't have a great read on this based on the awards previously handed out - The Banshees of Inisheern won the Golden Globe and Everything Everywhere All at Once won the Critics' Choice Award. While I like the idea of this award rewarding an original concept that may not get recognized in the big awards, I'm going with the more traditional The Banshees of Inisheern.

Best Adapted Screenplay - While I think this could go to All Quiet on the Western Front, I'm going to go with Women Talking, which won the Critics' Choice Award. From what I've heard about this film it sounds like it's writing-forward, if that makes any sense.

(Banshees and All Quiet won the BAFTAs, where Women Talking was not nominated. Everything Everywhere and Women Talking took the WGA Awards, which are not quite as predictive as the DGA Award, so there's still a chance I can get both of these... or miss both.)

Acting awards, rapid-fire as usual:

Best Suppoting Actor - Ke Huy Quan for Evertyhing Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress - Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Actor - Brendan Fraser for The Whale

Best Actress - Cate Blanchett for Tár

I feel like Best Actress is the most likely one to go to someone else, most likely Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. 

(Speaking of Michelle Yeoh, she led an Everything Everywhere All at Once near sweep at the SAG Awrds, as she, Ke Huy Quan, and surprise winner Jamie Lee Curis took three quarters of the individual film awards. Brendan Fraser took the lead actor award for The Whale. Compare these results with the BAFTAs, where Blanchett was my only pick to win. Austin Butler won best actor for Elvis while both supprorting awards went to The Banshees of Inisheern.)

Best Director - I'm going with Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schienert for Everything Everywhere All at Once, based on the same logic that saw Alfonso Cuaron win for Gravity. It may not be the best film overall in the groip (though it very well could be), but has a level of technical and visual achievement that should be awarded. 

(The Daniels won the DGA Award, but Edward Berger - who is not Oscar noominated - won the BAFTA for All Quiet)

Best Picture - But like the year Gravity won, we'll have a split at the top. I'm going with The Banshees of Inisheern, which I don't have winning anything else among these picks, but can see getting the top prize for being the second best film in all of the other nominated categories. 

(All Quiet won the BAFTA, while Everything Everywhere All at Once took the SAG Award for best ensemble, which is the closest thing they have to a best picture award. All Quiet was not nominated for the SAG Award)

That's it. Updates to come as more awards get handed out.

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Oscar Predictions 2022

Back for another year of Oscar predictions, although a second straight year of going 6 for 10 suggests I'd be better off doing just about anything else than making Oscar predictions.

One positive step for me this year is that I've seen a nominated film that's not animated! While I don't think it will win any awards, it was nice to see CODA pick up three nods. As usual, though, most of the nominated films I've seen are animated (Encanto and Luca; one of the kids did watch Raya and the Last Dragon but I didn't really pay attention). 

Some observations before the picks:

* The Best Original Song category is fascinating. Nominees include Beyonce, Billie Eilish, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Van Morrison, and Diane Warren (who is 0 for 12 in the category). I tend to think Miranda will win (even if people are shirty that "We Don't Talk About Bruno" isn't nominated), but I don't think I've heard any of the other songs, so take my judgement at face value.

* I obviously watched the wrong Latinx live-action musical this year, as I did see In the Heights (which landed zero Oscar nods) but not West Side Story (which picked up seven). West Side Story is coming to Apple TV+ soon, so hopefully I'll correct this oversight before the Oscars.

* It's weird that Being the Ricardos picked up three acting nominations and nothing else. I feel like if you have that many notable performances then the film probably has at least one award-worthy aspect outside of acting. 

Like last year, I'm making my picks before the more predictive guild awards, and will update as those become available. On with the picks!

International Feature Film - the one rule I've come up with for picking the winner here is to go with a movie if it's also nominated for Best Picture. It's not exactly rocket science, I know, but it works, so congrats to Japan for their win with Drive My Car, which will be their first win since the 1950s.

Animated Feature Film - no Pixar film this year, but three Disney films that could theoretically steal votes from each other to open things up for one of the other two. Realistically, though, I'd be stunned if this went to any other film but Encanto. 

Original Screenplay - Each of the nominees here seem to have an issue. Belfast has been criticized as being rose-colored with regards to the reality of growing up in Northern Ireland. Don't Look Up is too heavy-handed. King Richard is about a domineering sports dad. Licorice Pizza raised concerns over the age difference between protagonists. And The Worst Person in the World is too Norwegian. 

So who to go with? I usually look at this award as a consolation prize for the best film of the bunch that won't win Best Picture, but with this group it could be any of them. So instead I'm going with the lifetime achievement angle and Kenneth Branagh for Belfast. 

(Belfast won the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards, so I a may be on to something here. Don't Look Up won the Writers Guild Award, for which Belfast wasn't nominated.)

Adapted Screenplay - I am really pulling for CODA here, both as it's the one non-animated nominated film I've seen, and because it was filmed in and around where I live. But it's probably too much to expect the Academy to bend to my will. Instead, I will go with what would seem to be a bit of a make-up call for the writer not getting nominations elsewhere, and pick Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter. There's at least some argument that she and the film got snubbed for Best Director and Best Picture, and if voters buy into that they could make a correction here. 

(Sian Heder won the BAFTA and the WGA Award, Jane Campion the Critics Choice Award, so my theory is probably way off.)

Acting awards in rapid fire:

Best Actor goes to Will Smith for King Richard

Best Actress goes to Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actor goes to Ciaran Hinds for Belfast

Best Supporting Actress goes to Ariana DuBose for West Side Story

(Three of these awards seem pretty set - Smith, DuBose, and CODA's Troy Kotsur have won the SAG Award, BAFTA, and Critic's Choice Award, so at this point it seems like it would be an upset for any of them to not win the Oscar. Big miss on my part to not go with Kotsur. Best Actress seems likely to go to Jessica Chastain - she won the SAG and Critics Choice Awards, but wasn't nominated for the BAFTA.)

Best Director - I'm tempted to move away from The Power of the Dog, thinking it might be this year's Mank. But I'm not going to, as I fear that I'm over-reacting. I'm also going to resist the temptation of splitting the director and best picture awards, and go with Jane Campion. Which means...

Best Picture - I'm going to go with Power of the Dog.  CODA won the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast, but that's not particularly predictive. The winner of that award wins the Best Picture Oscar about half the time (10 times in the last 21 years). I fell like if I'm going to be wrong here it's going to be with a film like West Side Story, which as a big pedigree spectacle may get a lot of votes.

(Playing it safe seems like it might work out - Power of the Dog won both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards, and Campion won the Best Director award at both as well. But! CODA won the Producers Guild of America Award for best picture, which is generally highly predictive for winning the best picture Oscar but has deviated more recently than over the entire history of the award. Campion did win the best director award from the Directors Guild of America, so maybe we're on our way to a split?)

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Tarnished Gold

 In case you were wondering why NBC pulled the plug on the Golden Globes, give this a read. While the lack of diversity among Hollywood Foreign Press Agency members got mentioned a lot on TV reporting, always follow the money.

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Oscar Predictions 2021

Time once again for me to guess wildly at who will win the Oscars this year in ten selected categories, and hopefully improve on my woeful 6 or 10 performance from last year (thanks to my over-thinking the screenplay awards and missing on Parasite, like a large number of people).

The good news for this year is that with streaming in place I've watched more movies in the past year than usual. The bad news is that almost none of them were nominated. The two that were are both animated, which is par for the course for me. Also par for the course, using my picks as the basis for your own is highly contraindicated.

Before the picks, thoughts on other nominations:

* I thought Tenet might get more nominations than it did, but I may have been over-estimating how well it would do based on all the attention it got for being released in theaters in the middle of the pandemic.

* I also thought One Night in Miami would get more nominations, and was sad to see Regina King shut out. Once again, I wonder why there are ten Best Picture spots if the Academy isn't going to use them (I'm sure Spike Lee may be wondering the same thing about Da 5 Bloods, which was actually shut out completely). I was happy to see that two of One Night in Miami's nominations involved Leslie Odom, Jr. (Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Song).

* Speaking of Odom, I was saddened that the Hamilton film wasn't eligible. This apparently has something to do with it being a recording of a stage performance - I may have this wrong, the articles I read weren't particularly clear and the references to the Academy's rules didn't help - even though it's a mix of live performance and scenes filmed specifically for the movie. I don't feel as strongly about its exclusion as some do, but I would have been curious to see how it would have fared.

* Also happy to see Emerald Fennel pick up nods for directing and screenplay. She was great on Call the Midwife and have similar hopes for her on The Crown (just getting to the end of season 3 now).

* While I originally made these picks cold, the Producer Guild of America Awards and the SAG Awards have been handed out since then, so I've incorporated them into my prognostication, with notes where I changed my mind from my original selection.

On to the picks!

Best International Feature Film - it's sooooo much easier to pick this category when there's a film that's also up for Best Picture. I usually go with the film that involves the most obscure language (which would be Quo Vadis, Aida?, which is in Bosnian), but in this case I'll go with the film that allows the Academy to make a political statement, Hong Kong's Better Days. 

Best Animated Feature - the two nominated films I've seen are in this category - Soul and Wolfwalkers - though I could have seen as many as four (I did not watch Onward when other members of the family did, and we somehow missed A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, which I say in all seriousness as the younger boy is a big fan).  I'll admit to being biased for Wolfwalkers given its Irish roots, but I do think it was the more visually interesting of the two films I saw.

That being said, a Pixar movie is in the field, so I'm picking Soul. Though if Onward pulls away some votes...

Best Adapted Screenplay - My usualy theory of this award going to a film that got snubbed for Best Picture would lead me to pick One Night in Miami. And at this point I don't have a good reason to move on from this, so One Night in Miami it is.

Best Original Screenplay - Similar theory, but harder to pull off given that there are multiple films here that could qualify. I think I'll go with Mank as I feel like it's not going to convert on many of its 10 nominations.

Acting awards, in rapid-fire style as usual:

Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung for Minari

Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Actress - Frances McDormand in Nomadland

My original choice for Supporting Actress was Glenn Close, more or less as a lifetime achievement award, but given how often the SAG Award winner in this category goes on to win the Oscar I made the change. The Best Actress SAG Award is only slightly less predictive, but enough so that I'm sticking with my original choice. Probably to my detriment.

Best Director - No attempts at analysis, just riding the early returns and going with Chloe Zhao for Nomadland.

Best Film - And for the same reason, Nomadland. The Best Ensemble win at the SAG Awards for The Trial of the Chicago 7 isn't changing my mind, as of late it's not been particularly predictive (six of the ten SAG Award winners in the 2010s went on to win the Best Picture Oscar). Nomadland also wasn't nominated in the ensemble category, which complicates things, but I'm going to stick with it.

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