Wednesday, January 19, 2011

The Bellwether Awards, Part II

I'd missed/forgotten that the Globes give awards for directors and screenplay (didn't think these folks were big enough stars for the HFPA to bother), but seeing as they did I figured I'd go back and make comparisons.

I stopped with the screenplay award pretty quickly, as the mix of awards that offer one award versus two awards (one each for original and adapted) was going to make things pretty messy.

For directors, I used the usual awards (Globes, LA and NYC critics, National Review Board, Satellite) plus the DGA Awards. Not surprisingly, the latter are the most predictive; they've only differed from the Oscar six times in their history, with three of them happening since 1990 (the oddest was Ron Howard winning the DGA in 1995 for Apollo 13 while not even getting nominated for the Oscar). The Globes are a little less accurate, with they missing a bit more since 2000 than in the 1990s.

In any event, David Fincher should still feel pretty good about his chances, as he's won all of the directing awards given to date (sharing the LA critics award). If the DGA splits off and goes with someone else, he may want to worry.

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1 Comments:

Blogger Mark said...

If you want to see this sort of analysis by someone who knows what they're doing statswise, go check out Fivethirtyeight.com as Nate and the gang look to be doing some awards-related work in the coming days.

January 24, 2011 at 10:42 AM  

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